Politics

Politics govern our collective life. It is important to be politically aware and contribute in whatever way we can.

Beyond Politics: The Real Right to Rule

| A Better Muslim, Faith & Life, Insights, Politics, The Pakistan Dreamby

Political debates are pretty common in our country. Usually, they’re about “who is better for Pakistan.” Rarely do they focus on “what is better for Pakistan.” If we look at the manifestos of all political parties, military rulers, and even caretakers, we’ll find a few common themes: education, poverty alleviation, increasing exports, stronger defense, more jobs, and fighting corruption. But if we dig deeper into their hidden agendas, it all comes down to one question: “How do I come into power and how do I stay in power forever?”

My point is that none of these published or unpublished manifestos, really serve Pakistan because they fail to answer one crucial question: “Who has given us the right to rule?” This question matters because we are accountable to whoever gave us that right.

In the Quran, Allah says:
…Allah gives His kingship to whom He wills. (2:247)

This means that Allah gives us the right to rule, making the rulers accountable to Allah and Allah alone. Not to the establishment or judiciary. Not to the various mafias in real estate, agriculture, retail, or sugar. Not to the various superpowers or ‘brotherly’ Arab countries. Not even to the people of Pakistan. The rulers are accountable to Allah and Allah alone. And the reason that the right to rule is given by Allah, is to implement the laws that He has mentioned in the the Quran and Sunnah.

This important factor is not just ignored by our ruling elite but also by us. We too have been given a right to rule—a right to rule over our families, homes, and employees. And most importantly, a right to rule our own lives. We too are required to implement the laws of Allah in the domains that are given under our control.

The real change will come in our lives and our country when we accept this one important fact: Our lives, our children, our money, our fame, our rules, are all given by Allah and Allah alone. And they have been given to us for a reason, which is to implement the dos and don’ts as specified by Allah in the domains that we rule over. Have we done so? And if not, what right do we have to criticize someone who has not implemented them? What right do we have to criticize the rulers of our country? In Pakistan, implementing the laws of Islam is not difficult. In fact, they are quite easy and facilitative. If we still have not implemented these laws or agreed to implement them, then as far as I am concerned, we have no right to criticize anyone else, be it our neighbors, friends, or even our political elite. Everyone is busy disobeying Allah, and we are Everyone.

Pakistan Politics – 2023/2024

| Local, Politicsby

Last year, I wrote some of my analysis on the political situation and what we can expect. You can read the blog here. I believe it’s time for another one.  

So here is where the situation stands. There are two major forces in Pakistan who are fighting for power. Nawaz Sharif and Establishment. All the others are just insignificant side actors.  

First, let us see what cards each party holds in their hands.  

Nawaz Sharif has key players planted in Bureaucracy, Military Leadership, Businessmen (especially retailers and real estate), Judiciary (all levels), Police, Election Commission, and above all media.   

Establishment cards are never public, but they look particularly weak at the moment. I don’t think they have the support of the Judiciary anymore. After their last U-Turn, their mouthpieces in the media are either dead, out of the country, or in prisons. This would make it difficult for them to build a narrative of their choice.

As per my analysis (not prediction) this is what is going to happen now.  

  1. NAB cases of Sharifs are reopened, but they would be cleared by the Supreme Court.
  2. Supreme Court will clear Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz’s jail sentences.
  3. Nawaz Sharf will arrive in Pakistan and start his campaign.
  4. In January, or even before, whenever Nawaz Sharif says, elections will happen.
  5. Elections will be managed through (a) Prepoll Management and (b) Election Day management. Included in the prepoll management is to keep PTI Leadership in jail preventing them from campaigning and distributing tickets or even fielding polling agents. New voters are already registered by the Election Commission, so whatever the numeric majority of PTI might be, will be covered by these new (mostly bogus) voters. Election Day management will be done by the Election Commission, polling staff (nominated by Bureaucracy), police, and interim governments.
  6. Nawaz Sharif sweeps elections and comes to power. His side of the media will start singing praises.
  7. After gaining a majority in Parliament and Senate, he brings in a President of his choice.

Once Nawaz Sharif comes to power then he will have the required majority in parliament, senate and eventually presidency. Adding to the cards that he already holds, this would mean that he will be holding all the major cards in his hand.  

And that is when Round 4 of Nawaz Sharif versus Establishment will start. Nawaz Sharif would want a major say in postings and transfers within the military and would do anything to bring the powerful military in line with this agenda. His ‘selected’ military leadership will try to help as much as possible, but I am not sure till how long they would be able to resist and desist and stifle institutional pressure.

This is my just my analysis based on the present situation. It is not a prediction or anything. I too will be sitting and watching of how much of it becomes true.

Pakistan Politics 2022/2023

| Politicsby

My Analysis on what is to come.

Pakistan is yet again facing a political turmoil. Nothing new for Pakistan and it’s politics which has always been searching for political stability. At the core of every turmoil there is one ‘indecision’ that Pakistan has always managed to put itself into. And that is; Shall we be part of the American Block or not. Half of Pakistani powers that be, find benefit in being part of the American block while the other half doesn’t.

I will dump my thoughts on the background of this assessment sometime later, but for now, after some un-emotional  analysis, I have drafted the following series of events that Pakistan is going to pass through in the coming months.

As time passes, I will come back and review and comment on how correct or incorrect the predictive analysis was, which is always the fun part of any such exercise.

Starting from April ‘2022

  1. Imran Khan’s / PTI’s government is removed and a new government is formed.
  2. The new government is going to look something like
    • Shahbaz Sharif / Khaqan Abbasi as the new Prime Minister.
    • Bilawal Bhutto as Foreign Minister or some other important position. But FM to stay with PPP.
    • Shahbaz Sharif / Hamza Sharif as CM Punjab.
    • Maulana Fazl Ur Rahman as President or Governor KPK.
    • Son of Maulana Fazl Ur Rahman also gets some important ministry.

Immediate Tasks of New Government

  1. Start preparing budget.
  2. Roll back electoral reforms i.e. Voting for Overseas Pakistanis and EVMs etc.
  3. Roll back orders debarring Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz from contesting elections.
  4. Prepare for election engineering. Placing key stooges in key positions.
  5. Start improving relationships with India to create front against China and halt China’s development.
  6. Facilitate US in creating instability in Afghanistan, KPK and Baluchistan. This is to help US in forming a front against Russia.
  7. Keep Imran Khan busy in cases against him and/or in Jail.
  8. Appoint the new ‘compliant’ Army Chief (highly unlikely that any Army Chief will be compliant). But it will be tried.
  9. Appoint the new Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, which will help in rolling back orders against Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz.

Fissures in Opposition.

  1. In August ‘2022 or even next year once the tasks concerning roll back of court orders against Nawaz Sharif and rolling back of electoral reforms is completed, then fissures will start appearing in the combined opposition. As a result elections will be called. These fissures are just ‘Noora Kushti’ or fixed match, to keep the vote bank of the two parties (Noon and PPP intact). And to dispel the image that Imran Khan has given that the opposition is combined in their agenda of corruption.
  2. Nawaz Sharif returns and leads Noon to a whopping victory and becomes Prime Minister for the fourth time. It will be either him or his daughter Maryam Nawaz.
  3. Imran Khan meanwhile is kept busy in false cases or is in Jail. Imran Khan has only limited or no seats in the parliament after the new elections.

Benefits for the new government

As and when the new government of the combined opposition start fulfilling American demands, the following benefits will start happening.

  1. Pakistan’s removal from FATF. This might be quite immediate. Pakistan has already fulfilled all conditions but is still kept in the gray list. And FATF will not bring out Pakistan from the gray list till Imran Khan’s government is there to take the credit. Will be seen sometime in June/July 2022 after removal of PTI’s government and appointment of new PM from the combined opposition.
  2. As a result of ‘good’/’friendly’ diplomacy with India, India ‘might’ roll back its annexation of Kashmir. There is a very low chance of this happening. But might be used to provide strength to the new government. Can be a few concessions, but nothing big.
  3. Making Pakistan economically strong and independent, is against the wishes of US and even other countries e.g. China, Russia, Arab World etc. But some economic benefits will be seen for local consumption. Immediately starting from June/July 2022.
    1. Dollar Value starts coming down. But not much.
    2. Boom in stock market.
    3. IMF extends further loan or loan facilities but at very friendly conditions.
  4. And more ‘good news’ will come for the economy as and when American demands are met. But again not too much that will make Pakistan economically independent.

This is my assessment and/or analysis. I will not give it a lofty name like prediction or revelation. There is a high chance that it can be wrong, but I will review it over the coming months and comment as and when things start deviating from the track that I mentioned above. Till now we are on track i.e. Imran Khan government about to be removed and combined opposition is intact and getting stronger with each passing day.

The New Normal

| Insights, Politicsby

The sound of Azaan (the call for prayers) enters my room along with a cool breeze through an open window. Under normal circumstances, I would get up, perform Wuzu (ablution), call on my kids, Noor and Saif, and together we would head towards the Masjid. This was our routine, this was normal.

But times are not normal anymore. In Kuwait, like in many other parts of the world, to prevent the spread of corona virus Masjids are closed and Azaans are accompanied by two additional lines.

As salatu khairum min buyutuk
(Praying at home is better)

Just like me, lives of millions around the world are defined by similar routines. Be it early morning walks, after office gym, weekend movies, or family picnics. Just like mine, all these routines, today stand disrupted, causing agony and confusion. Every where that I look, people are trying to deal with this new reality; some with denial and the others with moderate to extreme precaution.

I must admit that initially it was all very novel. The buzz words ‘Work from home’, ‘More time to learn a new language or skill’, ‘Sleeping without alarms’, ‘Spending more time with children and famliy’, were fascinating to say the least. But then the novelty started to wear out. The numbers of infections started to increase, economic realities started to hit us. ‘What If’ started to capture our minds. Despair, confusion and fear started to creep in. Smokers who had quit; started to smoke again. ‘there is nothing else to do!’, they would say. We the humans, who were control freaks by nature, suddenly started to lose control. Nothing remained in our hands anymore. Everyone glued themselves to a screen, telling them the latest numbers. The new normal  as it was being called, started to wear off. No positive stories were coming through and the light at the end of the proverbial tunnel, was no where to be seen.

Meanwhile the buzz words changed to ‘The situation is expected to stay as is for a couple of years’, ‘Herd immunity might not work’. ‘Economic hardships would last even longer’. There is gloom every where and an expected doom, most likely just around the corner. No one can say what is going to happen, how we are going to get out of it. Are there other viruses waiting to hatch? Can something bigger hit us?

Although most of the despair is justified to an extent, but the reality is a bit different. While we cannot be sure about what is going to happen, but we can be sure about one thing.

Human beings are survivors.

As human beings, we have outlived more powerful species. We have outlived genocides, ethnic cleansing and racial discrimination. We have come out of wars, famine, floods and earthquakes. Hiroshima and Nagasaki came out of the worst possible calamity that anyone can ever imagine. We came out, although with scars, but we came out. That is how we are designed by our Creator. One way or the other we always find a way and continue to live on. Till the time, the Creator of this world decides to wrap up, things will continue to move forward. We will become better, smarter, learn from our mistakes and ensure that we leave a better world for our coming generations. As long as equality, justice and tolerance is embedded in our actions, like it is in our vast majority, we will continue to not only survive but progress.

It doesn’t matter how many routines are disrupted world-wide; it only matters how many new ones are created.

The sound of another Azaan enters my room. But this time from the slightly open door of my room. It is my son, the designated Muazzin (person who gives Azaan) of our home, who is calling us to prayer. I get up from my chair to perform Wuzu and perform Salah with my entire family. Masjids outside might be closed but we, like many others, have converted our home into a Masjid. I move to enter into a new masjid. I move to enter into a new normal. 

Along came a Virus!

| Insights, Politicsby

The talk was about Artificial Intelligence. The talk was about Smart Cities. The talk was about terrorism and wars, about naked genocide wiping out cities and populations.

Along came a virus and became the thing to talk about.

Every super-power was working to increase it’s influence and outsmart their peers. Power and influence drove them. Humanity and compassion went out of the room. It didn’t matter if their true faces were exposed. They were the super powers, they had spoken, everyone else had to comply. 

And then, came a virus! And showed everyone their worth.

We, too, jumped into the rat race and set our sights on making more money. From 4 to 5, from 5 to 6 and beyond, we wanted to add more digits to our paycheck. Everything sells, and we were ready to sell our body, mind, religion, family, country or culture, just to satisfy our greed and make more of what we already had too much of.

Then, came a virus! And taught us, how little we actually needed.

This virus is a tiny particle of protein. In weight, mass, appearance, it can be termed as ordinary. But it is anything but ordinary. It has brought super powers to their knees. It has turned smart cities into ghost towns. It has made powerful people, with stock piles of advance weapons and machinery, beg for masks and medicine.

There is No President on press spitting venom. There is No Idol on Television, No Diva on Screens, No Super heroes. No one is claiming to be larger than life. No one is showing off their wealth, muscles, influence or intelligence. Everyone has been humbled. This particle, tinier than the tiniest particle of sand, has stopped wars, terrorism, be-headings, blasts and carpet bombings. All of a sudden it has wiped out inhumanity.

Behold the virus that made us all humans!