Last year, I wrote some of my analysis on the political situation and what we can expect. You can read the blog here. I believe it’s time for another one.
So here is where the situation stands. There are two major forces in Pakistan who are fighting for power. Nawaz Sharif and Establishment. All the others are just insignificant side actors.
First, let us see what cards each party holds in their hands.
Nawaz Sharif has key players planted in Bureaucracy, Military Leadership, Businessmen (especially retailers and real estate), Judiciary (all levels), Police, Election Commission, and above all media.
Establishment cards are never public, but they look particularly weak at the moment. I don’t think they have the support of the Judiciary anymore. After their last U-Turn, their mouthpieces in the media are either dead, out of the country, or in prisons. This would make it difficult for them to build a narrative of their choice.
As per my analysis (not prediction) this is what is going to happen now.
- NAB cases of Sharifs are reopened, but they would be cleared by the Supreme Court.
- Supreme Court will clear Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz’s jail sentences.
- Nawaz Sharf will arrive in Pakistan and start his campaign.
- In January, or even before, whenever Nawaz Sharif says, elections will happen.
- Elections will be managed through (a) Prepoll Management and (b) Election Day management. Included in the prepoll management is to keep PTI Leadership in jail preventing them from campaigning and distributing tickets or even fielding polling agents. New voters are already registered by the Election Commission, so whatever the numeric majority of PTI might be, will be covered by these new (mostly bogus) voters. Election Day management will be done by the Election Commission, polling staff (nominated by Bureaucracy), police, and interim governments.
- Nawaz Sharif sweeps elections and comes to power. His side of the media will start singing praises.
- After gaining a majority in Parliament and Senate, he brings in a President of his choice.
Once Nawaz Sharif comes to power then he will have the required majority in parliament, senate and eventually presidency. Adding to the cards that he already holds, this would mean that he will be holding all the major cards in his hand.
And that is when Round 4 of Nawaz Sharif versus Establishment will start. Nawaz Sharif would want a major say in postings and transfers within the military and would do anything to bring the powerful military in line with this agenda. His ‘selected’ military leadership will try to help as much as possible, but I am not sure till how long they would be able to resist and desist and stifle institutional pressure.
This is my just my analysis based on the present situation. It is not a prediction or anything. I too will be sitting and watching of how much of it becomes true.