Pakistan Politics 2022/2023

My Analysis on what is to come.

Pakistan is yet again facing a political turmoil. Nothing new for Pakistan and it’s politics which has always been searching for political stability. At the core of every turmoil there is one ‘indecision’ that Pakistan has always managed to put itself into. And that is; Shall we be part of the American Block or not. Half of Pakistani powers that be, find benefit in being part of the American block while the other half doesn’t.

I will dump my thoughts on the background of this assessment sometime later, but for now, after some un-emotional  analysis, I have drafted the following series of events that Pakistan is going to pass through in the coming months.

As time passes, I will come back and review and comment on how correct or incorrect the predictive analysis was, which is always the fun part of any such exercise.

Starting from April ‘2022

1. Imran Khan’s / PTI’s government is removed and a new government is formed.
2. The new government is going to look something like
   • Shahbaz Sharif / Khaqan Abbasi as the new Prime Minister.
   • Bilawal Bhutto as Foreign Minister or some other important position. But FM to stay with PPP.
   • Shahbaz Sharif / Hamza Sharif as CM Punjab.
   • Maulana Fazl Ur Rahman as President or Governor KPK.
   • Son of Maulana Fazl Ur Rahman also gets some important ministry.

Immediate Tasks of New Government

1. Start preparing budget.
2. Roll back electoral reforms i.e. Voting for Overseas Pakistanis and EVMs etc.
3. Roll back orders debarring Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz from contesting elections.
4. Prepare for election engineering. Placing key stooges in key positions.
5. Start improving relationships with India to create front against China and halt China’s development.
6. Facilitate US in creating instability in Afghanistan, KPK and Baluchistan. This is to help US in forming a front against Russia.
7. Keep Imran Khan busy in cases against him and/or in Jail.
8. Appoint the new ‘compliant’ Army Chief (highly unlikely that any Army Chief will be compliant). But it will be tried.
9. Appoint the new Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, which will help in rolling back orders against Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz.

Fissures in Opposition.

1. In August ‘2022 or even next year once the tasks concerning roll back of court orders against Nawaz Sharif and rolling back of electoral reforms is completed, then fissures will start appearing in the combined opposition. As a result elections will be called. These fissures are just ‘Noora Kushti’ or fixed match, to keep the vote bank of the two parties (Noon and PPP intact). And to dispel the image that Imran Khan has given that the opposition is combined in their agenda of corruption.
2. Nawaz Sharif returns and leads Noon to a whopping victory and becomes Prime Minister for the fourth time. It will be either him or his daughter Maryam Nawaz.
3. Imran Khan meanwhile is kept busy in false cases or is in Jail. Imran Khan has only limited or no seats in the parliament after the new elections.

Benefits for the new government

As and when the new government of the combined opposition start fulfilling American demands, the following benefits will start happening.

1. Pakistan’s removal from FATF. This might be quite immediate. Pakistan has already fulfilled all conditions but is still kept in the gray list. And FATF will not bring out Pakistan from the gray list till Imran Khan’s government is there to take the credit. Will be seen sometime in June/July 2022 after removal of PTI’s government and appointment of new PM from the combined opposition.
2. As a result of ‘good’/’friendly’ diplomacy with India, India ‘might’ roll back its annexation of Kashmir. There is a very low chance of this happening. But might be used to provide strength to the new government. Can be a few concessions, but nothing big.
3. Making Pakistan economically strong and independent, is against the wishes of US and even other countries e.g. China, Russia, Arab World etc. But some economic benefits will be seen for local consumption. Immediately starting from June/July 2022.
   1. Dollar Value starts coming down. But not much.
   2. Boom in stock market.
   3. IMF extends further loan or loan facilities but at very friendly conditions.
4. And more ‘good news’ will come for the economy as and when American demands are met. But again not too much that will make Pakistan economically independent.

This is my assessment and/or analysis. I will not give it a lofty name like prediction or revelation. There is a high chance that it can be wrong, but I will review it over the coming months and comment as and when things start deviating from the track that I mentioned above. Till now we are on track i.e. Imran Khan government about to be removed and combined opposition is intact and getting stronger with each passing day.